Weekly inflation drops 0.67 pc – Journal

KARACHI: After seven weeks, the sensitive price indicator (SPI) for the week ending November 25 recorded a 0.67% wk drop, while it rose 18.6 pc yoy .

Analysts said the SPI plunged after seven weeks, but that might not be a relief as November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) could go into double digits.

The major price drop during the week ending November 25 was recorded for tomatoes 15.42 pc, onions 7.43 pc, chicken 6.62 pc, sugar 1.87 pc, flour wheat 0.95 pc, LPG 0.73 pc, Irri rice 0.59 pc and gur 0.51 pc with a joint impact of 0.80 pc in the overall SPI for the combined group of 0.67 pc.

A price increase was observed in washing soap 2.77 pc, bananas 2.11 pc, vegetable ghee 2.5 kg 2.01 pc, cooking oil five liters 1.32 pc, wood heating 1.09 pc and the dried vegetable 1.03 pc.

During the week, out of 51 items, the price of 20 items 45.10 pc increased, eight items 15.69 pc decreased and the prices of 23 items 45.10 pc remained stable.

Analysts Expect Double-Digit CPI for November

However, the year-on-year trend depicts a first quarter electricity price increase of 75.32 pc, LPG 74.85 pc, cooking oil five liters 58.34 pc, vegetable ghee one kg 57.87 pc, mustard oil 56.31 pc, vegetable ghee 2.5 kg 56 pc, gasoline 44.35 pc, washing soap 41.52pc, diesel 40.21pc and chili powder 34.18pc. A significant drop in prices was recorded for onions 37.91 pc, legumes 28.20 pc, potatoes 25.82 pc, tomatoes 11.72 pc and sugar 0.57 pc.

Ismail Iqbal Research’s Fahad Rauf said the CPI is expected to be in double digits from November, namely 10.1 pc against an average of 8.7 pc on 4MFY22 and an October reading of 9.2 pc . He said the prices of food, electricity and oil would be major contributors based on the MoM.

He said the State Bank of Pakistan SBP predicted 7-9% CPI in FY22, but “in my opinion the CPI would be between 10.5% and 11%. However, during the first half of January to June 2022, the CPI is expected to be between 11.50 and 12% due to rising energy prices and the devaluation of the rupee against the dollar, which would increase the cost of landing prices of finished products and imported raw materials.

Research Pak Kuwait Investment Company director Samiullah Tariq said, “I see a CPI of 10 pc in November. ”

He said that in the event that Covid-19 made a comeback, the possible drop in oil prices would lead to a 10 percent drop in food inflation. He added that the price of WTI crude oil on Friday plunged 10% to $ 69.50 a barrel. Mr. Tariq projected the CPI for the calendar year 2022 at 10pc.

Posted in Dawn, le 27 November 2021

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